The Rams had the better offense through most of the season, averaging 32.9 points per game to the Pats’ 27.3 but New England held opponents to 20.3 points per game while the Rams gave up 24 per game. Despite the hype about Sean McVay’s offense, Jared Goff (4,688 yards, 32 touchdowns, 12 interceptions) had comparable numbers to Brady (4,355, 29, 11) and the Rams running game (139 yards per game) was similar to the Pats (127 per game). The biggest difference will likely be experience, which the Pats have in boatloads.
Betting Line and odds via BetOnline.ag:
Patriots -2.5 (-115)
Rams +2.5 (-105)
-The Patriots are 6-4 against the spread over their last 10 games and 2-3 ATS away.
-The over has hit in just 3 of the Patriots’ last 10 games and in 2 of their 5 road games.
-The Pats are averaging 38.6 points per game over their last three games.
-The Rams went 5-4-1 against the spread in their last 10 games and 4-0-1 at home.
-The over has hit in 5 of the Rams’ last 10 games and in 4 of their last 5 home games.
-Todd Gurley has 20 rushing attempts this postseason to CJ Anderson’s 39 rushes.
Pick and prediction:
Patriots -2.5: The line opened with the Pats as a one-point favorite but that has grown to 2.5 on most sites, which should tell you the way the betting trends are going. It’s tough to bet against Tom Brady in the Super Bowl, especially after he bested the Chargers and Philip Rivers and the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes, two teams that were arguably both better than the Rams. 56% of public bets are backing the Pats to cover but if you like the Rams you can have them as a +3 underdog on Bovada at the time of this writing, while every other site has them a +2.5.
Over 56.5: We know that Tom Brady and the Pats running backs are going to put up points and the Rams come in with with the best offense in the NFC. The Pats-Chargers game saw 69 combined points and the Pats-Chiefs game saw 68 combined points and it’s hard to see this one going differently. 54% of public bets are taking the over.