For most teams, dropping 4 games off your pace from the previous year is nothing to be proud of, and looking in on the Dolphins, they should feel no different. The QB spot has been a major issue, though, and while Ronnie Brown re-emerged as a reliable when healthy running back, Chad Pennington’s injury threw everything out of whack for a few weeks. So then we got Chad Henne, starting in week 3, who gave Miami a 12/14 TD/INT ratio, which does wonder to explain the record. He’s currently penciled in at the top of the depth chart for the position, but you can expect plenty of controversy there before the season even starts – for two reasons.

First, Pennington isn’t a bad quarterback. In fact, there was a huge amount of enthusiasm before the start of last season that he would be the guy to carry them deep into the playoffs. Obviously, whether that happens waits to be seen, but if he’s healthy in 2010, I don’t see how you can stick with Henne for long if they start losing games.

Second, the team brought in Brandon Marshall, who isn’t going to keep quiet if the Dolphins are losing and he isn’t seeing the touches. And while they bring this guy in, they let Ginn go for picks, which I ultimately think will come back to bite them, as I don’t see anyone on the roster right now stepping up to be that No. 2 guy.

So expect the team again to win or lose on the strength of their defense and running game (don’t forget about Ricky!) There were 20 TDs scored on the ground between Brown and Williams in 2009, and while you can expect the Dolphins to spread the field more with a true deep threat, the bread and butter will be pounding down the opponents’ throats. Count on it.

I think we’re in for another mediocre year in Miami, and you shouldn’t expect more if you’re a fan or just an interested gambler. While their schedule lightens up a bit toward the end of the season, it’s brutal for the first half, and I think it’s a safe bet that by week 14 it’ll be too late for the fish, anyway.

I mean, let’s face it. If you’re team were really in the running for a Super Bowl crown this season, it wouldn’t have a quarterback controversy. The only time that doesn’t apply is when an elite QB gets hurt and is ready to come back mid-season only to see his replacement putting up such incredible numbers that it’s hard to switch back. Think back to Brady/Bledsoe, although calling Bledsoe anything close to elite is a stretch.

So applying this to the upcoming season, we see a few areas where a QB controversy is already making headlines. Let’s start in the NFL with Arizona. Warner is gone, so you’re looking at Leinert vs. Derek Anderson. Leinert really should’ve overtaken Warner at least a season ago, so you have to question his ability to step up now. That being said, I still have faith in his talent, and it’s not like he still doesn’t have Fitzgerald downfield as a nice, big target. Anderson is coming from banishment in Cleveland, looking for a fresh start, as well. Anderson is a turnover liability compared to Leinert, as well. Right now, it’s Leinert’s spot to lose, but don’t think he can’t or won’t lose it.

I’ll skip Buffalo since I already covered them recently and stay with the NFC in Carolina. The Panthers predictably dumped Jake Dellhome (wish I’d never drafted him in fantasy football last year), and have Matt Moore penciled in as the No. 1. The only other guy in the mix is Jimmy Clausen, and you have to mention him because of his draft position. The guy is also crazy talented. Still, the Panthers will likely give Moore a full season to run with this sucker and sink or swim…or at least half a season. If he doesn’t stick somewhere around that 6-2 record he currently holds, the powers that be in Carolina might get an itchy trigger finger for JC.

And I can’t end this without talking about Denver. Poor Kyle Orton just can’t catch a break. First it was getting no respect in Chicago (like, none, even WITH a .750 winning percentage). Then it was watching his great first half last year tank like nothing I’ve ever seen, and now it’s being forced to compete again for a starting role. Although, I’m not so sure he deserves to be a starter based on talent alone anyway. To make matters worse, you know Denver gambled on Tebow that high just so they COULD throw him in there. So Orton not only has to look over his shoulder on the field, but watch that owner’s box, as well. And, don’t forget, Brady Quinn is on this team, too. Remember him? He threw 4 or 5 TDs in one game last year and somehow became relevant again.

And while, yes, it is still too early to rank these teams “officially,” the sports gambler knows it’s never too early to assess what we’re working with here. So I’m going to loosely approach this ranking and continue to pick apart areas you should and shouldn’t pay attention to.

First, they plunged Oregon down to No. 10 due to the season-long suspension of quarterback Jeremiah Masoli. Honestly, that drop is too generous. They should be down more around No. 18 or so to start. And while the recent NCAA basketball tournament proved that anything is possible for the underdog, we all know college football, especially the BCS, has no interest in giving Cinderella a ticket to the very exclusive ball. And now Oregon knows they’re not going to a BCS game this year. Strike one. They also are going to be hurting for confidence behind an inexperienced field leader. Strike two. I won’t force a strike three just for the sake of completing the thought, but I think you get the point. They’ll win some games on the strength of their defense, sure, but they play in a tough conference and it’s not looking too good right now.

Boise State is stubbornly kept at No. 2. I won’t spend too much time on this, but the fact that they’re STILL above Ohio State and Texas is laughable. I know they basically have their entire team returning, but I just can’t get on board against those other two. Boise State at No. 4? Maybe, a bit more believable. They just don’t have a very tough schedule.

Nebraska at No. 7? Look, I’ve been all about chearing Nebraska’s resurgence the past two years. They’re really come on strong, but No. 7 is too high. They’ll probably settle in around No. 12 or so by mid-season. Remember, these guys play in the Big 12, and they’re bound to lose a game or two. And in this game, all it takes is a game or two to keep you out of the top 10 (unless you’re Florida, apparently).

I see the Tar Heels at No. 21. Enjoy that while it lasts UNC fans, I can’t imagine they’ll stay there for long. They basically need their solid defense to become incredible and they’re undisciplined offense to get their act together in a flash. I don’t see both of those happening, and as soon as this team loses a game, they’ll fall off the rankings. They don’t garner the respect of other D1 football clubs, and that’ll hurt them.

The Bills, with an ineffective T.O. (now ex-Bill T.O.), landed worst in their division last year at 6-10. They had very little success through the air (Fitzpatrick had 9 TDs) or on the ground (Fred Jackson had 2). It’s actually a credit to their defense they didn’t fall so far they could count their wins on one hand. Sure, THE top draft pick would’ve been nice, but even the Bills were a far cry from how awful the Rams were in 2009.

This team is in dire need of “out with the old, in with the new” syndrome, at almost every position. Trent Edwards is penciled (lightly) in at QB for now, and he was below average even when he did start last year. This team isn’t going anywhere on his shoulders, and if it comes down to covering a spread, you know it’s not going to happen through the air. In fact, Edwards threw more picks last year than he did INTs, so, if anything, I’d bet against them covering even in a game they’re winning, because Trent is just as likely to serve one up to the cornerback than he is the no-name that’s going to replace Owens.

The games I think they’ll win this year? Looking at the schedule, I’ll start off right away by saying they have a legitimate shot of upsetting Washington on opening day on the road. And in doing so, might permanently shut up anyone who says McNabb can still lead a squad to anything worthwhile. However, you look further down the road, and that might be the only road game the Bills win this year. I also give them home wins against Cleveland and Detroit, and maybe one of the two times they face the Dolphins. A 4-12 year sounds about right. This team is going backward before it goes forward, unfortunately for long-suffering Buffalo fans. But the one game that might give them a spark of hope late in the season is at home against the Steelers. I don’t care how poor Pittsburgh’s year might be going, if they lose to the Bills, that could actually be the intersection of the teams passing each other in opposite directions.

It’s not so much the teams that are on these lists that are a little surprising as it is where they’re falling. OK, Alabama at No. 1 is more or less a given. The defending champs have earned that spot and have an incredible amount of talent ready to go for another title come the fall (and that’s even after losing 7 players to the NFL draft).

How about teams like Boise State and TCU? They hype is steadily building for these teams, and in my opinion that’s a dangerous thing to bet on. Here’s why. It always seems without the big name, they’re 1 loss away from dropping about 12 spots in the rankings. So if Boise State finds themselves at No 2., say above Ohio State, a good six or seven weeks into the season, then they get upset by an unranked team and drop from the top 10…they might not even have enough time to recover for consideration in a BSC bowl game. I’ve seen it happen so many times. Boise State has a great deal of returning talent, and TCU is built for offense in the upcoming season, but neither has the staying power of the Buckeyes or Longhorns, for that matter.

So who am I gambling on before the season starts? You might think Alabama is the safest bet, but I’m not convinced yet. Sure, they have the talent, and SHOULD be there, but will they gel? Will the replacement players be a step up or step down from the offseason exodus of players to the next level? Ohio State is ready to reclaim the throne, and that’s who I’m betting on right now.

And speaking of off-season moves, don’t the Jets just continue to look better on paper? Yeah, on paper, since we all know where games are really played. But I continue to be a huge fan of this team. If the chemistry finds a spark, they could get to the Super Bowl. No doubt the Colts will be back again, albeit with a core that’s another year older. Nobody needs to challenge the heart of Peyton Manning, but it’s been a couple years now since we had to start watching the injury report for the guy. He might be the iron man of the game, but nobody’s body lasts forever. So will the Colts lose a step this year? I’m betting yes. They’ll still be a playoff team and still be an odds-on favorite leading into the season, but that dominance will take a step back to the reality of the team’s age and it’s defensive situation.

How about out in the NFC? With the silliness of Washington aside, you know New Orleans is going to come steamrolling into the season with the talent, confidence and power of a champion. If they can just put together a more cohesive running game, we’re talking 14 wins. Challengers? I’d say the Packers, but where are the real steps to improve the O-line, fellas? The Vikings? Eh, we’ll see how good the team is without Favre (always an if) or the solid backup Chester Taylor. Remember, Peterson isn’t a given every week. He might be good at gutting it out, but he gets hurt just like the rest of the world. My sleeper right now is the Ravens. We’ll see what Ray Rice can really do, and how much more of a ceiling Flacco has early on. That defense seems ageless behind Ray Lewis, so they should be good to go for another year. New Orleans vs. Baltimore in the NFC Chamionship game? Could happen.

You’ll notice I didn’t mention the Cowboys or the Patriots. Neither should you.

I’m sure you already have April 22 marked on your schedule. The Rams? They might not be sweating it so much, since they know what they’re going to do. I view Bradford as a major prospect. So many “name” college QB’s have headed to horrible teams in the NFL and it’s absolutely sunk them. Will Sam be any different? The injury doesn’t seem to be the issue, it’s the talent. The Rams might’ve cleared the path for such a QB, but what they have left growing in the yard ain’t exactly top soil. They better hope Bradford has the patience to grow with this team, otherwise you might be looking at names like Tim Couch or Jamarcus Russell for comparison instead of Vince Young.

The Lions, who were so thrilled not to lose all their games last year it was disgusting, get the No. 2 pick. And while they might need everything BUT a quarterback, they’re eyeing defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh from Nebraska. I think this is a smart pick. Defense builds the core of the team, and having a few more key guys in there, even if it takes this rookie a little while to develop, will quickly translate into 2 more wins per season. I wouldn’t exactly bet on them to be in the playoff picture, but it’s a start.

And let’s jump down to No. 4, I can’t resist picking apart the Redskins since the McNabb deal. You could argue they need someone for McNabb to throw to, but the first priority is likely someone to protect the guy. So offensive tackle Russell Okung from Oklahoma State looks to be the pick. And he’ll be lining up for them long after Donovan fades into the sunset. This year, though, not even the top prospect will keep McNabb from the trainwreck we’re about to see unfold in Washington. Count the games until Portis spouts off. Go ahead.

So Holmes and his substance abuse violation (and four-game suspension) leave Pittsburgh (who has enough issues itself lately with Roethlisberger) for the *ahem* greener pastures of the New York Jets. Although by the time he finally suits up, it might be the snow-covered pastures.

Anyway, here’s why I actually like this deal for both teams. First, Pittsburgh has to know something is up with their team. I know, that’s vague, but what I mean is that they’ve gone from champs to chumps to offseason headline-maker. They’re headed in the wrong direction and their personnel isn’t at the level of talent and youth to really be taken as a serious contender anymore. Forget about Big Ben’s issues for now. They still don’t have a really clutch, consistent RB. Hines Ward is a warrior, no doubt, but eventually he’ll have that Marvin Harrison season and you’ll just never hear from him again. Stronger offenses are poking more holes in the defense. So this this them a fifth round pick and an opportunity to try out some new blood at wide receiver while Ward is still there to mentor. And with Ben’s issues, the spotlight will largely be off any new starters for the beginning of the season.

In New York, this gives them a veteran, clutch, potentially-explosive receiver they can put in to complement LT2 and give Sanchez an “out” downfield when he gets in trouble. You hate to have to add “if healthy” as a disclaimer whenever writing about this team, but if they are, they can really do some damage. They have a solid defense, some depth at RB, a confident, growing quarterback and a coaching staff that knows how to make the most with what they have. I hope I’m not hyping these guys up too much, but if I had to guess now, I’d say betting them to get to the AFC Championship game is not out of the realm of possibility at all.

McNabb to the Redskins, geez. Where to start. First of all, don’t become a home Redskins fan and think they put the final piece in place for a playoff run. They haven’t. They’ve added a veteran on the slow descent to the downside of his career to a team with an oft-injured running back and defense that would’ve benefited from an upgrade before the QB position. And we’re throwing to…………..? Don’t say Santana Moss. The guy is so overrated it’s ridiculous.

Truth is, in my jaded analysis, this makes the Eagles better and the Redskins worse. Worse because it forces them to start a QB who, despite having every piece in place for a number of years, could never get the job done. Yes, I’m blaming McNabb. Not Reid, not Westbrook, not Owens, not the defense. Now Washington puts this guy into a new system and all of a sudden they’re supposed to put that 4-12 record to bed? How?

My advice: Stay FAR away from betting on Washington. They still have a ton of problems as a team. Even if Portis is healthy (which won’t happen) you aren’t going to get more than 4 or 5 touchdowns out of him. That position is in flux, and the opposing defenses are going to make it so difficult for McNabb to get any time it won’t be his fault when he challenges Aaron Rodgers for most sacks of the season.

The Eagles, however, have a fresh start here. New QB, new RB, hopefully filled by two guys who don’t spend entire seasons on the bench hurt. The Eagles defense still lives up to its reputation. They need a few sparks on offense and they can force the Cowboys to look over their white and blue shoulders better than anyone in the NFC.

One of my favorites right now is the New York Jets at 15:1. If you wanted a plausible long shot who could turn around and shock the league this year, it’s these guys. There are a ton of what if’s (LT2’s health, Sanchez’s poise, the defense’s ability to replicate most of last year), but if they all come together, it could be there time. Dropping $1,000 is a huge risk on an unproven team, and you’ll definitely want to hedge with a couple hundred on a few favorites, but a $15K payoff is all you need to justify taking that one big chance this year.

Another team in that mid-tier but still upper echelon range is the Green Bay Packers. The oddsmakers have them at 11:1 at the moment, which I think is actually much too low. Compared to a team like the Jets, the Packers have so many more holes I don’t even know where to begin. The offensive line is one of the worst in the league – and that WILL catch up to Rodgers eventually. Ryan Grant is a serviceable but far from explosive back that I’d never trust to drive a team in the playoffs. The defense is average, and although he always seems to prove the fantasy owners wrong, Donald Driver is another year older. Greg Jennings, also, didn’t exactly turn into Miles Austin last year himself. Plus they play in an extremely tough and improving division. So where are the positives here? Experience? Aaron Rodgers? Sorry, both nice but not nearly enough to gamble on.

And in the basement, you’ve got the Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Raiders, Rams and Lions at 100:1. I always find it amusing to pick out the best of the worst, just in case you wanted a REALLY long shot. And that’d have to be the Lions, with honorary mention to the Chiefs. I know the Chiefs made a couple moves, but that whole Sam Cassel thing isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. The Lions have Stafford, who still brings excitement and will keep this team interested this year. Not to win anything, but if they can get themselves up to 5 wins, and pick up a few more defensive prospects in the offseason…I can see them at .500 by the end of 2012. Bet the Mayans never predicted that.