Let’s start with Baltimore, picking up Anquan Bolden. When healthy, this guy is a stud. He was the Larry Fitzgerald of Arizona before Larry Fitzgerald. He can make plays and break out as a deep threat for Leinart, Warner or whomever was throwing him the ball for the Cardinals. Now he has breath-of-fresh-air Joe Flacco (hey, compared to Boller, anyone looks good), who managed to resurrect an offense playing second fiddle to Ray Lewis for years. With Bolden on the wing and a full year under Ray Rice’s belt, are the Ravens ready to made a run? Here’s your answer: Yes, if. Yes, if Bolden stays healthy. Also, it gets cold in Baltimore…so yes, if Bolden can stay healthy, and warm. Seriously, this is a good pickup. And Baltimore should get to the second round if they put it all together.

Now to Chicago, where the fans haven’t been this excited about an acquisition since, well, last year when they welcomed Jay Cutler. Does a similar rocky season lay in wait for Julius Peppers? Not likely, I think all the shakeups in coaching will inject some sense of urgency back into the team. Plus, Urlacher will be back, and although he’s another year older, he can still get the job done. Peppers will fit in nicely and make this a feared defense again. Playoffs? You still gotta show me who Cutler is going to throw to. I love the Chester Taylor pickup. This guy should be starting somewhere, mine as well be in Chicago. But it’ll all come down to how well the team can spread the offense. And Cutler has to cut down on the interceptions. Bears can go as far as the Ravens, maybe further if teams like Minnesota fall back (if – IF – Favre leaves – again – finally).

The Rams need to get their defensive line in order first (who doesn’t?). If I were calling the shots, I’d spend the pick there, or trade down to a taker and maybe look at other options in the second or third round at QB (think Tebow will drop?)

And speaking of dropping, sad to see superstars like LT2, Westbrook and now Thomas Jones get released. We all know why, and in the case of Westbrook it’s probably overdue, but still…end of an era and all that stuff. No doubt these guys will get picked up somewhere if they still want to play, but the question is would you bet on a team that plans to start them, even Tomlinson?

I can’t say that I would. Of course, I also can’t imagine the Chargers putting the bulk of the RB responsibilities on the shaky shoulders of Darren Spoles (in fact, as I’m typing this, he’s cleared for free agency). But think about it, this is a great team that let Tomlinson go, perhaps without a solid plan for a replacement. So who’s chomping at the bit to bring him in – at over 30? Didn’t quite work for Emmit Smith in Arizona.

Tread lightly when planning futures bets with teams thinking about turning the ball over to one of these guys. Although, I will say Thomas Jones can still get it done.

I’m going to spend some time talking about the Packers here. Aaron Rodgers was all but heroic last year. The guy was sacked what seemed like every other time he touched the ball, and still put up extremely consistent numbers to push his team into the playoffs. His 423-yard game wasn’t enough to get by the Cardinals, but that was hardly his fault. And he’s still young. Honestly, the QB is the least of their concerns. What they need to address immediately is their offensive line, and perhaps look in another direction for a No. 1 running back. Grant is ultimately unimpressive. 11 TDs and 1,200 yards is…good, acceptable. I wouldn’t put the ball in his hands with the game on the line, though. Also to take into consideration is that Driver, although he proves every year he can still play, is still one year older every year. At some point, he’s going to cross that Cris Carter/Tory Holt threshold and take his seat on the bench.

So I’m afraid of Green Bay taking a step back, especially since the Lions are taking small steps forward. Minnesota might suffer in the short term without Favre at the helm, and Chicago needs a revamped, younger defense and an entire squad of receivers. So while the Packers still look good in the NFC North, there’s no guarantee they can turn that into playoff success.

To nobody’s surprise, Alabama tops the list right now. They’re a 7/2 shot, which is extremely favorable, as well as quite an enticing option for pre-season bets on who’ll win it all. Alabama had 24 seniors depart at the end of last year, but many key guys remain, and new talent is ready to step in and keep this team at the top. And that starts and ends with QB Greg McElroy and RB Mark Ingram. With 17 passing and rushing touchdowns, respectably, in 2009, look for huge years out of these offensive stars in 2010.

Ohio State – perhaps more of a process of elimination placement – sneaks into the #2 spots on the oddsmakers list at 13:2. They have a nice upside, but I still think they’re missing that destructive, killer instinct on defense that defined the team in the mid 90’s. I don’t think they can win the big one. Prove me wrong, Buckeyes.

Florida, expectedly, slides to a 16:1 shot. I’m surprised they didn’t fall further. No Tebow is one thing, but the press on the coaching staff and everything else about expectations and living up to past teams will be a nightmare for these guys, at least for most of the year. Strong talent remains, but beware of putting too many eggs in this Gator basket.

How about a “long shot?” Nebraska has made steady improvements over the last two years, and I think they’re ready to show they’ve learned from their mistakes and matured into a contender. They still play in one of the toughest conferences around. At 15:1, it couldn’t hurt to drop $100 on them right now and forget about it.

Other titans that have come back to reality are Oklahoma and Texas, both who are suffering through their own QB deficiencies as they transition as organizations. OU is 18:1 and Texas is 14:1. Honestly, both proved they couldn’t win a NCAA football bet without their key guy, and even with a steady presence at quarterback to start the year, it still won’t be McCoy or Bradford taking the snaps. Why take a chance? You might give up some winnings on the other end, but better to feel these guys out and play them on a week-to-week basis.

Minnesota Vikings: Well, first they’ll need a quarterback.  And man I hope they do have to make that decision.  I don’t think I could stand another off-season of Favre playing his juvenile game of stay or go.  I think he’s gone, and the question of who’s going to step in a fill the void of the team that should’ve gone to the Super Bowl (or at least overtime) is going to be top news in Minnesota.  I’ll tell you this, though.  No matter what the odds, if they start Tavaris Jackson – a HUGE step back – forget about betting on them to get out of the first round of the playoffs.  Peterson could run for 50 touchdowns and it wouldn’t make a lick of difference.

New England Patriots:  Something just didn’t feel right during the later rounds of the playoffs without Tom Brady and company there.  It’s easy to hate these guys, but I’ll bet they would’ve put up more of a fight against the Saints than the Colts did.  Brady and Moss started to gel as the season went on, and I think they’ll be fine.  The problem was Welker’s health as far as the offense was concerned – that and a revolving door at RB that must be solved.  Either put your weight behind Maroney or go get someone you trust to carry the bulk.  This team worked wonderfully behind Corey Dillon, they just need another guy like that.  Just someone of the Ryan Grant caliber.  And when Brady went out a couple years ago, the defense was already falling apart.  We saw this year it must get patched with some youth to have a chance in the year ahead.

A few quick hits.  The Steelers need to pull themselves together and play like a team again.  The Chargers – well, they’re hopeless.  Maybe dumping Tomlinson IS what they need.  The Giants are a mess, as well.  Their defense let them down and RB injuries hurt them early and often.  Two large things that aren’t easy to fix with a few months rest.

So if I’m betting right now, today, on who’s going to win the Super Bowl, who would it be?  Who else?  

Da Bears.

Brees knows these opportunities don’t come along too often, so he won’t be so quick to allow the game to rest on whose knees are holding up best at the line of scrimmage. Fat chance of that. And my gut is telling me the experienced Colts will get the first score, leaving Brees to play catch up through the air during most of the game. Sooner or later, you’ll see those 40 yard passes either connecting or getting run back the other way.

Last week I predicted Bush and Colston would be duds, and they were. And that’s a perfect example of what’s held the Saints down this year – their inconsistency. Even Brees has been up and down, although you wouldn’t believe it by taking a quick glance at his season stats. I expect Colston to make his mark here, 110 yards and at least one score, probably a deep bomb. But Henderson will get most of the looks, which is a mistake in my opinion, but it seems to be where the team has gone the last month. Bush is only as good as his one big breakaway, and if that doesn’t happen, he’ll get you 20 yards rushing, 20 yards passing, and a big doughnut on the scoreboard.

Pierre Thomas almost put the ball in the end zone 6 times this year, and the Saints did not have an extremely difficult schedule. Would you trust him down by 4 with the ball on the 5 yard line? He almost couldn’t get a yard leaping through the air against the Vikings (and nearly had the ball busted loose to boot.)

Yeah, the saying goes this year that the Saints can beat you in so many ways. Maybe, but Brees is only as good as his machine’s cogs. Plus, anyone else notice his throws were coming out wobbly in the second half of the Vikings game?

What can I (or anybody for that matter) say about the Colts that isn’t already known? This is Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne and company. They’ve been to the big dance before, and they’re ready to put up another show. And you should believe the oddsmakers, because I don’t think there’s nearly enough stopping power in New Orleans’ defensive arsenal to put the fear of Mardi Gras into the blue and white.

The pass rush is going to be huge in this game, everybody knows that. But Manning is such a student of the game, and he spreads the field so well (often using Wayne as a decoy), the Saints secondary will be running circles around itself by halftime. It’s not that experts think the Saints defense is that bad, but when stacked up against the Colts’ offense, that’s a different story.

Of course, the Colts defense has its own problems these days with the Freeney situation (yes, we’re talking about offense but we need to update these things).

So here’s what I expect. Dallas Clark will see at least 10 catches for 80 yards or more and a touchdown. Wayne will be double-teamed but still catch a TD pass and go for almost 100. And if Manning hoists a few downfield, they’ll either likely be picked off or connect huge with Garcon. The second-year star has been huge this off-season, and the guy has some flat-out speed that Miles Austin would be jealous of.

You’ll notice I haven’t mentioned the running game yet. How perceptive of you. Look, we all know the game will be won or lost through the air. Then again, so do the teams, and you can bet they’ll try to keep the offenses as honest as possible. Both teams have what I call A to B running backs. Like a reliable car, they’ll get you from point A to B without much flash, but they’ll surprise you when tested every so often. Addai, who was a top 5 pick in last year’s fantasy drafts (just to show you how far he’s fallen), is the epitome of that. He can pound it in down low as a go-to option, something you won’t see on the Colts team (no to Thomas, no to Bush).

The line keeps crawling up, and we all keep finding ways to justify the Colts covering. Hell, if you were going to bet them at 5.5, you mine as well stick with them at 6, right? I still think it’s going to be a blowout, so I’m betting the Colts, but if the Freeney injury has you doubting, play it safer and take your amount down or hedge it with an over/under or one of the other thousand gambling options open to you this week.

The Saints gave up 235 passing yards on average over the course of the regular season, but Manning himself averaged 282. Who do you think is going to win that battle? The Saints will no doubt throw their fair share of doubles Reggie Wayne’s way, but what can’t be lost on them is that Dallas Clark has just as many touchdowns this year, and only 150 receiver yards fewer than Wayne.

The Saints did give up a handful fewer rushing yards than the Colts defense this year per game, but still more than 120. Addai never materialized into the threat some predicted a couple years ago, but he still knows how to punch it in the end zone.

And that’s what the Saints are studying the next two weeks – how to break into what the Colts are built to do. Manning marches the ball down field and their either short toss it in or give it to Addai in the red zone. And it won’t be easy. Take a look at the standings for the NFC South. The Saints defense gave up more points than everyone else except the Bucs. In fact, only the Bears, Giants, Seahawks and Rams also gave up more points in the entire NFC. And that, folks, is why oddsmakers are losing faith in the Saints ability to pull off an upset on neutral ground. These guys can’t even hold down the offense of an average team…what are they going to do against the Saints.

Everyone expects a shootout, and the passes will definitely fly. But will they connect? Manning is too smart of a quarterback to feel much pressure from New Orleans’ defense, but he’s also too smart to underestimate them. Unless Manning somehow breaks his wrist in the next two weeks, I’d say the Saints defense is going to get run in circles in Miami.

This week is the defenses, next week is the offenses. But first, the line. It’s already shifted, so keep watching it. First the Colts had a 4 point edge, now it’s up to 5.5 points. Seems like nfl odds makers have seen the Saints play their last handful of games and are wondering how this team will actually play against a real defense.

Sure, they beat the Vikings, but it’s more like Minnesota gave the game away (Favre, specifically), and then the refs handed the game to the Saints on a horrible pass interference call and then a bad non-reversal of a called catch in overtime. But none of that matters anymore.

Speaking of defenses, if the other half of the game fails to produce a clear leader before the game, it’s a lot less cloudy which club’s defense can handle its own. The Colts gave up about 339 average all-purpose yards per game (about 20 less than the Saints). They held opposing teams to 125 total yards rushing. I predict the Colts rush defense will step it up and be on fire this week (I was right about Bush and Colston last week, wasn’t I?) and hold the Thomas/Bush duo to no touchdowns and fewer than 100 yards combined.

Of course, we all know if the Saints are going to win this game it’s going to be on the back of Brees’ passing game, and this is where the Colts (212 yards allowed during season) need to make a statement. Nothing will take the wind out of the Saints sails early than an early pick sometime in the first quarter.

With Freeney leading the way (don’t kid yourself, his impact will be felt), the Colts defense can do as much as any one offensive player to turn the tide of the big game. I’d feel comfortable betting the Colts to cover if you have confidence in their defense making huge plays and forcing Brees to throw more of those wobbly passes he tossed toward the end of the Vikings game.

The Jets know this, but they don’t care. They just ended the Chargers incredible winning streak, and are taking aim at the other top team in an absolutely stunning and improbable march through the playoffs. They’re the underdog and they love it. And lucky for them, the Colts are 8-point favorites heading into the weekend matchup.

It’s no secret the Colts lead every offensive category over the Jets when looking at season average, but what catches your eye is how the Colts nearly doubled the Jets passing effort. Of course, Peyton Manning compared to Mark Sanchez is like comparing High School Musical to Glee (wow, horrible reference), but still, for one team to be that far ahead of another professional club speaks volumes. One guess what area the Jets defense is beefing up for this week.

As for the Colts defense, look for them to turn the tide early with a few gambles to grab a pick. Sanchez had 20 throughout the year, and although the Jets defense helped get him through his first two “big” games – and to his credit he’s kept his poise (only 1 int over the first two playoff games), the Colts are just in another league than both the Bengals and, yes, the Chargers on both sides of the ball.

The Jets better hope they get the first score, because if they don’t I think they’ll be trailing the entire game.

Manning is certainly capable of throwing a few picks himself (16), but he puts himself and his team in such great position (33 TD passes this year), it almost doesn’t matter to anyone except the fantasy teams.

The Jets are built to stop the run, but the Colts aren’t interested in killing you on the ground, and when they do put their ground game into full action, it’s usually too late for the defense to make up for its earlier deficiencies anyway.

My wild card here is Thomas Jones. I think he’ll get more carries than the first two playoff games, and if he can find a hole or two and keep this one interesting, the Jets will ride that emotional fuel through as much of the game as they can. But the defense is only going to be as good as how long they can rest between Colts possessions. If Sanchez goes pick happy or bombs three and out more often than not, that great wall of green is quickly going to be mowed over.

Colts cover.