Well, that depends on which metrics you use. On the one hand, Tebow has a God-awful completion percentage of 48.9 percent for his career, and he’s even worse in this, his second season, at 48.5 percent. He has a weak arm, and his winning drives generally take plenty of time because of his inability to tightly throw strikes to the sidelines or deep down the field, so he severely limits Denver’s options in the passing game. On the other hand, he has a Quarterback Rating of 83.9 this season, 83.4 for his career, and was at 82.1 as a rookie in minimal reps. Mike Vick, who has consistently received praise over his career as a “game changer,” has had only one season as a full-time starter with higher ratings that any of those numbers. Add in the fact that Tebow has thrown only two interceptions this year in 198 attempts and added 25 rushing first downs without losing a single fumble (again, he’s been a bit lucky by putting the ball on the ground four times and not losing a single one), and you’ve got a pretty solid NFL quarterback.

The truth is, Tebow’s pretty good at football. He’s not a great quarterback, and he’ll likely never be one. But in the right system, such as the multiple-read, option attack Denver has instigated, and with a dominant defense like the one he has wearing the same uniform right now, he’s good enough to win more than he loses. But, that’s probably his ceiling, so the Broncos have a slim margin for error. With a league filled with dominant passers, it will be hard for Denver to win a Super Bowl any time soon.

Tebow’s pretty decent, but he’s not the answer long-term if the Broncos want some serious hardware.

The obvious favorites are the Green Bay Packers. They have Aaron Rodgers, who happens to be in the middle of one of the best ever statistical seasons, posting a Quarterback Rating that would make Peyton Manning jealous. Oh, and they have a decent defense too and will almost certainly end up with the number one seed in the NFC. They have the best record and the best point differential, and face only two real potential challenges in their conference in the form of San Francisco and New Orleans. Both have impressive point differentials (second and third in the NFL, respectively), but the difference here is Drew Brees vs. Alex Smith. The rest of the pack in the NFC is relatively mediocre, and while it’s possible Dallas or the New York Giants could upset one of the top three, it’s almost unforeseeable that any lower-rung playoff seed will be able to win three times en route to the Super Bowl against such quality opponents.

In the AFC, things are a bit murkier. The Patriots have the second best point differential in the conference behind Houston, and have Tom Brady. But, the defense backing Brady up is subpar and erratic. Houston, one of the league’s best teams through this point in the season, is playing its third-string quarterback in T.J. Yates after multiple unfortunate injuries. Against Brady at home or either Pittsburgh or Baltimore, two dangerous rivals in the AFC North, Yates isn’t going to cut it. Pittsburgh has Ben Roethlisberger, always a threat, and a quality team otherwise, so just like every year, they’ll be a tough out. In Baltimore, it’s the same situation as the Ravens continue to sport perhaps the league’s best defense on an annual basis, but Joe Flacco isn’t quite on the same level as the top two quarterbacks in the conference.

Figuring out who will end up in Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis remains a difficult task with a three weeks left in the season, but at least that task has been whittled down to six: Green Bay, San Francisco, New Orleans, New England, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore. For the rest, there’s always next year.

Marketing gurus may say otherwise, but statistically speaking, the answer is clear: No!
Vick had a monster season in 2010. Although he missed four games due to injury, the 12 he managed to suit up for were breathtaking. The lefty tossed for over 3,000 yards, 21 touchdowns compared to only six interceptions, and posted a quarterback rating of 100.2, the best of his career as a starter by nearly 19 points. Additionally, he ran for 676 yards and scored nine rushing touchdowns. It’s fair to say he was the most difficult man in the league to scheme against.

But it may have been more a career year than a changed career trajectory. Vick’s career quarterback rating rests at 80.1 in more than 100 games played. He has posted ratings under 80 in six out of nine seasons. His teams have never reached a Super Bowl and his playoff rating is 76.9. To sum it up, Mike Vick has been a disappointment in all but two seasons in his NFL career.

In life, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Perhaps when it comes to Inmate #7, more attention should be paid to the stats, and less to the lies that our eyes register when we see him as we wish he would be.

For most teams, dropping 4 games off your pace from the previous year is nothing to be proud of, and looking in on the Dolphins, they should feel no different. The QB spot has been a major issue, though, and while Ronnie Brown re-emerged as a reliable when healthy running back, Chad Pennington’s injury threw everything out of whack for a few weeks. So then we got Chad Henne, starting in week 3, who gave Miami a 12/14 TD/INT ratio, which does wonder to explain the record. He’s currently penciled in at the top of the depth chart for the position, but you can expect plenty of controversy there before the season even starts – for two reasons.

First, Pennington isn’t a bad quarterback. In fact, there was a huge amount of enthusiasm before the start of last season that he would be the guy to carry them deep into the playoffs. Obviously, whether that happens waits to be seen, but if he’s healthy in 2010, I don’t see how you can stick with Henne for long if they start losing games.

Second, the team brought in Brandon Marshall, who isn’t going to keep quiet if the Dolphins are losing and he isn’t seeing the touches. And while they bring this guy in, they let Ginn go for picks, which I ultimately think will come back to bite them, as I don’t see anyone on the roster right now stepping up to be that No. 2 guy.

So expect the team again to win or lose on the strength of their defense and running game (don’t forget about Ricky!) There were 20 TDs scored on the ground between Brown and Williams in 2009, and while you can expect the Dolphins to spread the field more with a true deep threat, the bread and butter will be pounding down the opponents’ throats. Count on it.

I think we’re in for another mediocre year in Miami, and you shouldn’t expect more if you’re a fan or just an interested gambler. While their schedule lightens up a bit toward the end of the season, it’s brutal for the first half, and I think it’s a safe bet that by week 14 it’ll be too late for the fish, anyway.

I mean, let’s face it. If you’re team were really in the running for a Super Bowl crown this season, it wouldn’t have a quarterback controversy. The only time that doesn’t apply is when an elite QB gets hurt and is ready to come back mid-season only to see his replacement putting up such incredible numbers that it’s hard to switch back. Think back to Brady/Bledsoe, although calling Bledsoe anything close to elite is a stretch.

So applying this to the upcoming season, we see a few areas where a QB controversy is already making headlines. Let’s start in the NFL with Arizona. Warner is gone, so you’re looking at Leinert vs. Derek Anderson. Leinert really should’ve overtaken Warner at least a season ago, so you have to question his ability to step up now. That being said, I still have faith in his talent, and it’s not like he still doesn’t have Fitzgerald downfield as a nice, big target. Anderson is coming from banishment in Cleveland, looking for a fresh start, as well. Anderson is a turnover liability compared to Leinert, as well. Right now, it’s Leinert’s spot to lose, but don’t think he can’t or won’t lose it.

I’ll skip Buffalo since I already covered them recently and stay with the NFC in Carolina. The Panthers predictably dumped Jake Dellhome (wish I’d never drafted him in fantasy football last year), and have Matt Moore penciled in as the No. 1. The only other guy in the mix is Jimmy Clausen, and you have to mention him because of his draft position. The guy is also crazy talented. Still, the Panthers will likely give Moore a full season to run with this sucker and sink or swim…or at least half a season. If he doesn’t stick somewhere around that 6-2 record he currently holds, the powers that be in Carolina might get an itchy trigger finger for JC.

And I can’t end this without talking about Denver. Poor Kyle Orton just can’t catch a break. First it was getting no respect in Chicago (like, none, even WITH a .750 winning percentage). Then it was watching his great first half last year tank like nothing I’ve ever seen, and now it’s being forced to compete again for a starting role. Although, I’m not so sure he deserves to be a starter based on talent alone anyway. To make matters worse, you know Denver gambled on Tebow that high just so they COULD throw him in there. So Orton not only has to look over his shoulder on the field, but watch that owner’s box, as well. And, don’t forget, Brady Quinn is on this team, too. Remember him? He threw 4 or 5 TDs in one game last year and somehow became relevant again.

And while, yes, it is still too early to rank these teams “officially,” the sports gambler knows it’s never too early to assess what we’re working with here. So I’m going to loosely approach this ranking and continue to pick apart areas you should and shouldn’t pay attention to.

First, they plunged Oregon down to No. 10 due to the season-long suspension of quarterback Jeremiah Masoli. Honestly, that drop is too generous. They should be down more around No. 18 or so to start. And while the recent NCAA basketball tournament proved that anything is possible for the underdog, we all know college football, especially the BCS, has no interest in giving Cinderella a ticket to the very exclusive ball. And now Oregon knows they’re not going to a BCS game this year. Strike one. They also are going to be hurting for confidence behind an inexperienced field leader. Strike two. I won’t force a strike three just for the sake of completing the thought, but I think you get the point. They’ll win some games on the strength of their defense, sure, but they play in a tough conference and it’s not looking too good right now.

Boise State is stubbornly kept at No. 2. I won’t spend too much time on this, but the fact that they’re STILL above Ohio State and Texas is laughable. I know they basically have their entire team returning, but I just can’t get on board against those other two. Boise State at No. 4? Maybe, a bit more believable. They just don’t have a very tough schedule.

Nebraska at No. 7? Look, I’ve been all about chearing Nebraska’s resurgence the past two years. They’re really come on strong, but No. 7 is too high. They’ll probably settle in around No. 12 or so by mid-season. Remember, these guys play in the Big 12, and they’re bound to lose a game or two. And in this game, all it takes is a game or two to keep you out of the top 10 (unless you’re Florida, apparently).

I see the Tar Heels at No. 21. Enjoy that while it lasts UNC fans, I can’t imagine they’ll stay there for long. They basically need their solid defense to become incredible and they’re undisciplined offense to get their act together in a flash. I don’t see both of those happening, and as soon as this team loses a game, they’ll fall off the rankings. They don’t garner the respect of other D1 football clubs, and that’ll hurt them.

The Bills, with an ineffective T.O. (now ex-Bill T.O.), landed worst in their division last year at 6-10. They had very little success through the air (Fitzpatrick had 9 TDs) or on the ground (Fred Jackson had 2). It’s actually a credit to their defense they didn’t fall so far they could count their wins on one hand. Sure, THE top draft pick would’ve been nice, but even the Bills were a far cry from how awful the Rams were in 2009.

This team is in dire need of “out with the old, in with the new” syndrome, at almost every position. Trent Edwards is penciled (lightly) in at QB for now, and he was below average even when he did start last year. This team isn’t going anywhere on his shoulders, and if it comes down to covering a spread, you know it’s not going to happen through the air. In fact, Edwards threw more picks last year than he did INTs, so, if anything, I’d bet against them covering even in a game they’re winning, because Trent is just as likely to serve one up to the cornerback than he is the no-name that’s going to replace Owens.

The games I think they’ll win this year? Looking at the schedule, I’ll start off right away by saying they have a legitimate shot of upsetting Washington on opening day on the road. And in doing so, might permanently shut up anyone who says McNabb can still lead a squad to anything worthwhile. However, you look further down the road, and that might be the only road game the Bills win this year. I also give them home wins against Cleveland and Detroit, and maybe one of the two times they face the Dolphins. A 4-12 year sounds about right. This team is going backward before it goes forward, unfortunately for long-suffering Buffalo fans. But the one game that might give them a spark of hope late in the season is at home against the Steelers. I don’t care how poor Pittsburgh’s year might be going, if they lose to the Bills, that could actually be the intersection of the teams passing each other in opposite directions.

It’s not so much the teams that are on these lists that are a little surprising as it is where they’re falling. OK, Alabama at No. 1 is more or less a given. The defending champs have earned that spot and have an incredible amount of talent ready to go for another title come the fall (and that’s even after losing 7 players to the NFL draft).

How about teams like Boise State and TCU? They hype is steadily building for these teams, and in my opinion that’s a dangerous thing to bet on. Here’s why. It always seems without the big name, they’re 1 loss away from dropping about 12 spots in the rankings. So if Boise State finds themselves at No 2., say above Ohio State, a good six or seven weeks into the season, then they get upset by an unranked team and drop from the top 10…they might not even have enough time to recover for consideration in a BSC bowl game. I’ve seen it happen so many times. Boise State has a great deal of returning talent, and TCU is built for offense in the upcoming season, but neither has the staying power of the Buckeyes or Longhorns, for that matter.

So who am I gambling on before the season starts? You might think Alabama is the safest bet, but I’m not convinced yet. Sure, they have the talent, and SHOULD be there, but will they gel? Will the replacement players be a step up or step down from the offseason exodus of players to the next level? Ohio State is ready to reclaim the throne, and that’s who I’m betting on right now.

And speaking of off-season moves, don’t the Jets just continue to look better on paper? Yeah, on paper, since we all know where games are really played. But I continue to be a huge fan of this team. If the chemistry finds a spark, they could get to the Super Bowl. No doubt the Colts will be back again, albeit with a core that’s another year older. Nobody needs to challenge the heart of Peyton Manning, but it’s been a couple years now since we had to start watching the injury report for the guy. He might be the iron man of the game, but nobody’s body lasts forever. So will the Colts lose a step this year? I’m betting yes. They’ll still be a playoff team and still be an odds-on favorite leading into the season, but that dominance will take a step back to the reality of the team’s age and it’s defensive situation.

How about out in the NFC? With the silliness of Washington aside, you know New Orleans is going to come steamrolling into the season with the talent, confidence and power of a champion. If they can just put together a more cohesive running game, we’re talking 14 wins. Challengers? I’d say the Packers, but where are the real steps to improve the O-line, fellas? The Vikings? Eh, we’ll see how good the team is without Favre (always an if) or the solid backup Chester Taylor. Remember, Peterson isn’t a given every week. He might be good at gutting it out, but he gets hurt just like the rest of the world. My sleeper right now is the Ravens. We’ll see what Ray Rice can really do, and how much more of a ceiling Flacco has early on. That defense seems ageless behind Ray Lewis, so they should be good to go for another year. New Orleans vs. Baltimore in the NFC Chamionship game? Could happen.

You’ll notice I didn’t mention the Cowboys or the Patriots. Neither should you.

I’m sure you already have April 22 marked on your schedule. The Rams? They might not be sweating it so much, since they know what they’re going to do. I view Bradford as a major prospect. So many “name” college QB’s have headed to horrible teams in the NFL and it’s absolutely sunk them. Will Sam be any different? The injury doesn’t seem to be the issue, it’s the talent. The Rams might’ve cleared the path for such a QB, but what they have left growing in the yard ain’t exactly top soil. They better hope Bradford has the patience to grow with this team, otherwise you might be looking at names like Tim Couch or Jamarcus Russell for comparison instead of Vince Young.

The Lions, who were so thrilled not to lose all their games last year it was disgusting, get the No. 2 pick. And while they might need everything BUT a quarterback, they’re eyeing defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh from Nebraska. I think this is a smart pick. Defense builds the core of the team, and having a few more key guys in there, even if it takes this rookie a little while to develop, will quickly translate into 2 more wins per season. I wouldn’t exactly bet on them to be in the playoff picture, but it’s a start.

And let’s jump down to No. 4, I can’t resist picking apart the Redskins since the McNabb deal. You could argue they need someone for McNabb to throw to, but the first priority is likely someone to protect the guy. So offensive tackle Russell Okung from Oklahoma State looks to be the pick. And he’ll be lining up for them long after Donovan fades into the sunset. This year, though, not even the top prospect will keep McNabb from the trainwreck we’re about to see unfold in Washington. Count the games until Portis spouts off. Go ahead.