And while, yes, it is still too early to rank these teams “officially,” the sports gambler knows it’s never too early to assess what we’re working with here. So I’m going to loosely approach this ranking and continue to pick apart areas you should and shouldn’t pay attention to.

First, they plunged Oregon down to No. 10 due to the season-long suspension of quarterback Jeremiah Masoli. Honestly, that drop is too generous. They should be down more around No. 18 or so to start. And while the recent NCAA basketball tournament proved that anything is possible for the underdog, we all know college football, especially the BCS, has no interest in giving Cinderella a ticket to the very exclusive ball. And now Oregon knows they’re not going to a BCS game this year. Strike one. They also are going to be hurting for confidence behind an inexperienced field leader. Strike two. I won’t force a strike three just for the sake of completing the thought, but I think you get the point. They’ll win some games on the strength of their defense, sure, but they play in a tough conference and it’s not looking too good right now.

Boise State is stubbornly kept at No. 2. I won’t spend too much time on this, but the fact that they’re STILL above Ohio State and Texas is laughable. I know they basically have their entire team returning, but I just can’t get on board against those other two. Boise State at No. 4? Maybe, a bit more believable. They just don’t have a very tough schedule.

Nebraska at No. 7? Look, I’ve been all about chearing Nebraska’s resurgence the past two years. They’re really come on strong, but No. 7 is too high. They’ll probably settle in around No. 12 or so by mid-season. Remember, these guys play in the Big 12, and they’re bound to lose a game or two. And in this game, all it takes is a game or two to keep you out of the top 10 (unless you’re Florida, apparently).

I see the Tar Heels at No. 21. Enjoy that while it lasts UNC fans, I can’t imagine they’ll stay there for long. They basically need their solid defense to become incredible and they’re undisciplined offense to get their act together in a flash. I don’t see both of those happening, and as soon as this team loses a game, they’ll fall off the rankings. They don’t garner the respect of other D1 football clubs, and that’ll hurt them.

It’s not so much the teams that are on these lists that are a little surprising as it is where they’re falling. OK, Alabama at No. 1 is more or less a given. The defending champs have earned that spot and have an incredible amount of talent ready to go for another title come the fall (and that’s even after losing 7 players to the NFL draft).

How about teams like Boise State and TCU? They hype is steadily building for these teams, and in my opinion that’s a dangerous thing to bet on. Here’s why. It always seems without the big name, they’re 1 loss away from dropping about 12 spots in the rankings. So if Boise State finds themselves at No 2., say above Ohio State, a good six or seven weeks into the season, then they get upset by an unranked team and drop from the top 10…they might not even have enough time to recover for consideration in a BSC bowl game. I’ve seen it happen so many times. Boise State has a great deal of returning talent, and TCU is built for offense in the upcoming season, but neither has the staying power of the Buckeyes or Longhorns, for that matter.

So who am I gambling on before the season starts? You might think Alabama is the safest bet, but I’m not convinced yet. Sure, they have the talent, and SHOULD be there, but will they gel? Will the replacement players be a step up or step down from the offseason exodus of players to the next level? Ohio State is ready to reclaim the throne, and that’s who I’m betting on right now.

To nobody’s surprise, Alabama tops the list right now. They’re a 7/2 shot, which is extremely favorable, as well as quite an enticing option for pre-season bets on who’ll win it all. Alabama had 24 seniors depart at the end of last year, but many key guys remain, and new talent is ready to step in and keep this team at the top. And that starts and ends with QB Greg McElroy and RB Mark Ingram. With 17 passing and rushing touchdowns, respectably, in 2009, look for huge years out of these offensive stars in 2010.

Ohio State – perhaps more of a process of elimination placement – sneaks into the #2 spots on the oddsmakers list at 13:2. They have a nice upside, but I still think they’re missing that destructive, killer instinct on defense that defined the team in the mid 90′s. I don’t think they can win the big one. Prove me wrong, Buckeyes.

Florida, expectedly, slides to a 16:1 shot. I’m surprised they didn’t fall further. No Tebow is one thing, but the press on the coaching staff and everything else about expectations and living up to past teams will be a nightmare for these guys, at least for most of the year. Strong talent remains, but beware of putting too many eggs in this Gator basket.

How about a “long shot?” Nebraska has made steady improvements over the last two years, and I think they’re ready to show they’ve learned from their mistakes and matured into a contender. They still play in one of the toughest conferences around. At 15:1, it couldn’t hurt to drop $100 on them right now and forget about it.

Other titans that have come back to reality are Oklahoma and Texas, both who are suffering through their own QB deficiencies as they transition as organizations. OU is 18:1 and Texas is 14:1. Honestly, both proved they couldn’t win a NCAA football bet without their key guy, and even with a steady presence at quarterback to start the year, it still won’t be McCoy or Bradford taking the snaps. Why take a chance? You might give up some winnings on the other end, but better to feel these guys out and play them on a week-to-week basis.

If there ever were a tale of offense vs. defense, this is it. Let’s start with Alabama. Average points scored against: 11. No. 1 in the league. The rank No. 2 in both total yards allowed and rushing yards allowed, and they ranked seventh in passing yards allowed. They shut teams down, as Florida can attest to. On the other side, Texas is third in the league with points scored per game at just over 40. They come in at 20th in total yardage, and four of their last five games has eclipsed the over/under mark.

In a game of this magnitude, it’s my feeling that the defense fuels more off the emotional charge than the offense. And in that area, it’s clear Alabama has the advantage. Now, Texas’ defense is certainly no slouch. If Alabama was No. 2 in rushing yards allowed, I’ll bet you’re wondering who No. 1 is? That’s right, the Longhorns. And they, themselves, only give up 15.8 points per game. Still, I feel that Alabama has that killer instinct about them. And as for Texas, when it came down to making a big play throughout the year, it always seemed to be McCoy and the offense that stepped up to get it done.

Alabama will need to score, though. They can’t rely of their defense to do all the work. They put up, on average, about 9 points less than Texas during the regular season. And if for some reason the defense doesn’t get off to a hot start, Alabama could be playing from behind from as early as the first quarter.

The weather is expected to be about 70 and partly cloudy, so don’t expect the quarterbacks to be slowed down one bit. That spells good news for McCoy, who should be able to use this as a nice national showcase for his talent – as if another one were needed. Still, after seeing what Alabama did to Florida, it’s hard to believe another team could knock them off if they’re having a good day. So I say bet Alabama on the money line, and cautiously recommend them covering the line. And, even given Texas’ track record here, I’d take a stab and the under – I think it’ll be set a little high and both defenses will step up and keep the score under 30 on either side.

The Rose Bowl has Ohio State as a 4-point underdog to Oregon. Don’t let Ohio State’s somewhat bumpy record fool you. The Buckeyes can play with anybody in D1 still and have a lot of pride as an organization. They’ll still want to go out and prove themselves even if they’re not playing for a national title. This is such a great matchup in and of itself – No. 8 vs. No. 7, doesn’t get more evenly matched than that. Ohio State 10-2 (7-1) on the year, and Oregon right with them at 10-2 (8-1). Orgeon’s weapon is Masoli, a double threat on offense with 15 passing touchdowns and 12 rushing ones himself – only two off the team leader in rushing touchdowns. If Ohio State’s defense can find a way to contain him early and disrupt their routine, they’ll have a good chance to pull ahead before halftime. Ohio State has done much of their scoring through the air this year behind Pryor’s arm, and have built themselves as a strong defensive presence. I like their chances in the emotional contest, and give them the edge to upset in this one.

Also on New Year’s Day is Cincinnati vs. your favorite could-woulda-shoulda team Florida in the Sugar Bowl. Florida remains a strong 12.5-point favorite despite Urban Meyer’s best attempts to distract his team from its immediate goal. Sure, health comes first, but what’s with the timing? Anyway, Florida knows they’re the better team – playing as a big fish in a small pond in this one – and that’s the dangerous part that worries me as a gambler. I don’t think they consciously underestimated Alabama, but sometimes when you’re on top for so long you can’t help but take certain things for granted. Can the Bearcats (undefeated this year, mind you, at 12-0, 7-0) take advantage of what might be another chip in the Gators’ armor of unrivaled focus and domination? Possibly, but unlikely. Florida is too talented, and Tebow has too much pride to drop two in a row to finish his career. But will the Gators cover the line? I believe they will. We’re only talking 2 touchdowns here, and Cincy has shown throughout the year when facing ranked opponents they do two things. 1) Give up a lot of points and 2) only win by a few. That might work against West Virginia, but if your defense isn’t having the game of its life, Florida will destroy you. Bet on it.

And the Texas Bowl showcases Navy as a 6.5-point underdog on New Year’s Eve against Missouri. The 8-4, 4-4 Tigers were such a NCAA betting strategy enigma this year, showing flashes of greatness only to falter when they needed momentum the most. A sign of positive things to come? Who knows. But MU does have 3 nice wins to finish the year, and is no doubt happy to be playing in a bowl game. Navy has a similar record at 9-4, and the similarities don’t stop there – both teams put up about the same points and point differential with their opponents, and play the same type of up and down ball. With that much in common, it’s difficult to predict, so I’m recommend either staying away from the line, or taking a chance on Navy upsetting, as that’s a generous line they’re giving Missouri.

Boston College finished the regular season at a decent 8-4, 5-3 in conference. However, they only faced one ranked team back against Virginia Tech in October and got crushed. Their passing game and running game have both produced just shy of 15 touchdowns each, so you can expect them to spread the offense around and keep USC’s defense honest, if not under worked. The offense outscored it’s remedial opponents by an unimpressive 6 points on the year. And they lost against teams that can run and pass the ball (Tech, Notre Dame, etc…)

USC had a rather human year itself, 8-4, with all the losses within the Pac-10 conference. Believe it or not, they finished in sixth place. USC is definitely the more battled-tested of these two, having played five ranked opponents this year, and coming out victorious in three of them, including (remember?) that nice creaming of Ohio State earlier this year.

USC scores on the ground, or at least mostly on the ground. And they shouldn’t have too much trouble running in that fine San Francisco weather. So I think USC is good for at least 2 -3 scores on the ground.

If you’ve watched USC much throughout the year, you know they have that spark of a special team still, it’s just not there every week anymore. Yes, the talent has dipped, but we’ve seen what they can do. The question is are you willing to take a chance that good USC will be MIA when it matters?

I recommend taking UC against the line, but I’d avoid the money line bet on this one, it’s asking you to put up too much. I’d rather take my chances with the NCAA football odds by putting $100 down on USC covering rather than tempting fate dropping $300 just to pull in a third of that if they win outright.

FS can get the job done through the air behind Colburn (QB), so look for them to take that approach early to establish themselves, and then sneak in the running game behind Mathews (17 Tds during the year). Wyoming’s offense was pretty poor in the regular season, no running back had more than six touchdowns, and they passing game only yielded 7 TD’s all year – making you wonder why these teams go to bowl games. Anyway, the line is probably generous, but it’s not big enough, and I’d safely bet Fresno State to cover.

Then on Sunday, Dec. 20, we get the New Orleans bowl (yeah, the first few are always the worst, you know it’s true). This one pits Middle Tenn. State as a 4.5-point dog at Southern Mississippi. MTS has actually carved out a nice season in the Sunbelt conference, finishing second only to Troy (and losing to them). They didn’t play a ranked opponent all year, though. However, their defense held strong in most contests, keeping their competition under 25 points all but 4 times, three of those during losses. Southern Miss. was only 4-3 in Conference USA standings, and lost to Kansas and Houston, the only two ranked teams they faced. And, let’s just say their defensive numbers were not as impressive. I like the upset here. I prefer MTS’s defense to SM’s rather uninspired offense and below average defense. Either way it goes, plan to see the fireworks through the air, which also could put the stronger defense in the spotlight. I’m betting MTS, and I’m taking the over.

All right, let’s cut right to it. #1 vs. #2. What many would consider the national championship itself. The closest thing we’ll get to a playoff in the BCS format. And, in case it didn’t have enough names, probably the most gambled on game this side of the Super Bowl.

Florida, the road warriors here, still enter as 5.5-point favorites. So what do we do…what do we take from last week’s performances. If you ask me, both teams sent a clear message – ones that were completely opposite from each other.

I don’t see anything that tells me Alabama’s defense can contain the Florida Gators. Let me put this into perspective for you. The Gators worst win of the season, if there is such a thing, was a 10-point win over No. 4 LSU. So they haven’t won by fewer than a dime all season. And there’s plenty that would say LSU had and has just as much offensive firepower as Alabama.

Alabama’s 31.7 pp. might be enough to escape Auburn, Virginia Tech and Tennessee, but do you think they’ll cover this one? Yeah, Dunlap likely won’t play for Florida, but they have more than enough to fill the hole.

Bet the over, and bet Florida to cover. And, while we’re at it, go ahead and bet them to beat Texas in the Championship game, too. Counting my chickens too soon? Sure, but that’s where all the fun is.

OK let’s do one more game. It’s taking a lot to get excited about anything else, but I’ll throw a potential upset out there. Texas is a 14.5-point favorite on the road at Nebraska. The Cornhuskers were expected to compete this year, and they have. They’re No. 22 in the nation, 9-3 in conference play and leading the Big 12 North. A long way from where they were 2 years ago. Are they on the same level as the Longhorns? No chance. Are they capable of riding an emotional game in their tough home territory to an upset? You bet. Or at least you can bet on Texas not covering. Again, if you’re looking for a high-profile line upset, look no further.

Alabama is an 11.5-point favorite on the road against Auburn. The No. 2 team in the nation is still on fire at 11-0 (7-0), while Auburn has lost 4 of its last 6 – one of those losses being at home to Kentucky. This one should really be a no-brainer. I see Alabama crushing the home team, and the only thing that can stop them is if they’re looking too far ahead to the 12/5 game at home against Florida, which by the way I can’t wait to see the line for. But for now, Auburn (3-4 in conference) has to deal with them. Ultimately, I think Alabama will cover on the message they want to send the Gators that they can pick apart any conference foe they want in their sleep.

Speaking of which, Florida hosts Florida State, in what used to be a game that mattered. This time, the Gators enjoy a 23.5-point edge. Sounds funny to say that seems low, but it does. Florida has really only beat one currently-ranked team this year, LSU, and it was only by 10 points. Lucky for them FSU isn’t ranked, nor or they much of a threat on either side of the ball. FSU can score, don’t get me wrong, but they’re a long way from toppling Brigham Young early in the season. Florida covers.

Texas is a 22.5-point favorite on the road against Texas A&M. The third team in our trio of deserving National Championship contenders just obliterated every opponent going back to their tight victory over Oklahoma. A&M is not the team they were expected to be this year, sitting at a disappointing 3-4 in conference and 6-5 overall. The question isn’t whether they’ll win this game, though, it’s whether they have enough talent and pride to put the brakes on the Longhorns. Here’s how I look at it…we’re basically talking about 3 touchdowns and a throwaway score, which Texas, if it really wants to impress enough to be part of the title mix, should be able to do in its sleep. Think McCoy is motivated? You’re right. Bet Texas.

We’re winding down now, so it’s the big games that matter. That’s where you want your action to be anyway. Sure, you’ll check the lines and sneak in a few good money line shots if they look sweet, but you don’t want to be watching Akron vs. Bowling Green when there’s real football to be viewed.

How about Connecticut at Notre Dame. The Irish are a 6-point favorite at home. At 6-4, the Irish are comfortably sandwiched between Navy and Army, but nothing else about their rocky, disappointing season has been comfortable. Especially the coach’s job security. They’re coming off 2 losses in a row and look like they’re in shambles on both sides of the ball. Conn., though, is 4-5, and a painful 1-4 in conference, so don’t expect them to roll in and pull out a miracle on NBC. The Irish will win and cover the spread. It probably won’t help their bowl game positioning, but they gotta get out of the hole at some point.

California at Stanford, the only game of the week featuring 2 ranked teams (25 and 17 respectively). Standford is favored by a touchdown and extra point at home. Both these teams are jockying for position in a Pac-10 division featuring three other ranked teams, including Oregon. So the competition has been tough, which could explain California’s 4-3 conference record. It seems like when the games really matter, they’re a .500 club. They are 3-1 on the road this year, though, so anything is possible. If you feel like betting an upset this week, here’s your best shot at a winner.